Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Alert

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."